Ukraine Expected to Surpass 1 Million Infections in Only 10 Days; the U.S. took 10 weeks.

A day in the Ukraine is like a week in the United States . . .

for Pandemic Influenza spread, that is.

On October 29, the Ukraine officially reported an uptick in Influenza-like-Illness (ILI) and a surge in hospitalisation.  Concomitant deaths were reported from hemorrhagic pneumonia and four doctors were soon included in the fatality pool.  The situation was recognised and immediate action was taken.  Very early in the process, a nationwide alert was issued and the situation came under central management.  In mere days, the healthcare infrastructure was stressed and supplies were exhausted.  Resources have been redirected and escalations continue.  Citizens are cutting their own clothing to make masks.

Tomorrow will mark 10 days since that spark. 

Based on the most recent daily case increases trending upward from 32% to 37%, we expect the Ukraine to surpass one million reported infections by Saturday afternoon, November 7, 2009.  If the reporting trend continues with the weekend and the rates hold, just under 1.2 million cases will be cataloged.  We cannot speculate if a report will be made publicly available on Saturday.

The official reports from the United States indicated that 1 million infections were reached in late June 2009, 10 weeks after the initial sparks of PF11 began to ignite the populations and burn through the major cities.

The Ukraine progression defines a new method for PF11.  In the early phases of any catalyst event, all statistics are suspect, but the trending is often useful.  Official numbers, upon some minor calculations, demonstrate that the daily increase in hospitalisation and deaths is rapidly climbing.  Yesterday the increase in daily hospitalisations was 20% and today the increase is 37%, almost a doubling in day-to-day velocity.  Yesterday the increase in deaths was 17% and today the increase is 42%, more than a doubling in day-to-day velocity. 

Data reporting cut-offs are always at issue in these early inflows, but over the next two weeks an exacting pattern will be defined.  Researchers must be given access to the raw data to determine causality and vectoring.  A significant library of samples has been received and sequenced in a prestigious European coordinating laboratory.  No data at this time has been released. 

Timeliness is essential when a virus has marched to 1 million suspect cases in only 10 days in one country of less than 50 million people.  1 of 50 ill across 10 days.  Clinical and environmental data matching the sequences will be critical to deduce and weight the parameters driving this regional escalation.  Those who will writeoff these flashpoints as medical infrastructure failures and sub-standard housing problems endemic to the third world are not intellectual Titans.  A pandemic is by definition unpredictable in phase shift timing and degree.  To discount this Ukrainian surge in suffering to poverty is simply academically irresponsible in a pandemic era.  These data points requested, if made public today, may save the lives of many in the area and exponentially more in the coming months around the globe.

The Ukraine is bordered by the countries of Russia, Belarus, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Moldova.  The southern area of the Ukraine is involved in several bird migration routes being bordered by the Black Sea.  Sequence examination of late summer specimens from these bordering areas and Eastern Europe demonstrates a trend equal to the United States with a significant Hydra Effect and substantial Antigenic Diversity delivered via Influenza Flux.  US sequences certainly match and even advance the polymorphisms in Eastern Europe and these border nations.

Our studies clearly demonstrate a one to three week lag at maximum in transport time and acquistion into new geographic areas of trait-enhancing genetic material within ΣPF11.  The stage is already set with similar sequences existing in most parts of the world.  225E has continued to penetrate in dozens of nations and is a factor in our present working hypothesis for this Ukraine spark. 

If the Ukraine has variant genetic specimens, the information is primary to world health.  Singapore was recently courageous enough to release 600 sequences that widely demonstrate movement in the reservoir.  Only an immediate evaluation of the full dataset of Ukrainian sequences and matched clinical information will provide countries the opportunity to prepare if this incident does mark an inflection point or catalyst event in the pandemic.

Is the US only one cold winter week from the situation today in the Ukraine?  Is the base of Pandemic 2.0 now widening in countries that have some point of susceptability?  If so, the landing strips are presently in place for these new polymorphisms to land on the existing PF11 strains in every basic geographic area of the world. 

We may all be one week from seeing a million new cases in our homelands or, worse yet, watching 2% of our population stricken in only 10 days. You do the math for your nation and then decide if we need data transparency and academic honesty.


For additional background on the clinical and epidemiological observational facts concerning Pandemic Influenza H1N1, please refer to the Table of Contents for PF11 Trends & Issues, Mid-Term.

Please visit GeneWurx.com for insight into the latest published studies.